Analysis

Macro-economic analysis

Macro-economic analyses focus on the trends and connections in the economy. Forecasting is an essential discipline within macro-economic analyses, as it lays the foundation for the national and international structural policies. The models used for macro-economic analyses are often very intricate, and the use of them requires experienced economists to make credible recommendations for the financial and structural policy.

Cases

Analysis of the expansion of the “New right to earlier pension” and the “Senior pension” scheme

There is wide support among the Danish population to allow the most debilitated workers to retire early. However, a proposal for a new early retirement scheme by the government is directed towards workers with many years in the labour market and does not consider whether the individual worker is in fact worn out. If adopted as-is, the government’s new proposal for early retirement would exist alongside the current senior pension scheme that is directed towards the most debilitated individuals. In our analysis, we compare the costs of expanding the eligibility of the current senior pension scheme to a wider age group versus the costs of expanding government’s new proposal for early retirement.

 

We find that an expansion of the existing senior pension scheme would bring 3.800 individuals to early retirement and only cost 26.000 DKK per person in 2025, while expanding the government’s proposal would bring 10.500 to early retirement and cost 98.000 DKK per person in 2025. This large difference is due to the fact that only few individuals who join the senior pension come from employment, whereas the opposite is the case for the government’s early retirement scheme.

 

Gigtforeningen

Economic consequences of the Fehmarn Belt fixed link

Stagnated traffic development, lower EU-support, and other changed preconditions are challenging the profitability of the Fehmarn Belt tunnel. 

 

The Danish parliament has decided to construct an undersea tunnel in the Fehmarn Belt. A key prerequisite for this decision was that the entire Fehmarn-project is paid solely by the future users of the tunnel and therefore not by the Danish taxpayers. However, our analysis of the implications of traffic development, lower EU-support, and other changed preconditions of the project, makes us conclude that the economic case of the project can no longer be characterized as solid.   

 

Calculating the economic implications of the lower traffic and thus lower expected revenue from road tolls together with the lower financial support from the European Union, we find that the project can be expected to generate a loss of around 3 billion DKK (in 2014-prices). The Fehmarn-project will generate a loss of around 32 billion DKK (2014-prices) if the expected prices for cars and lorries are adjusted downward similarly to what was decided on the Oresund Bridge after its opening.

 

Scandlines

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