Analysis

Evaluations

Impact evaluation is a necessary and efficient tool for measuring the effectiveness of a program. This tool is thus a key aspect in getting the most out of your money and keep the programs that are beneficial and discard those that are not. The impact evaluations can vary from experimental to non-experimental design and has become the gold standard in areas such as social intervention and development programs.

Cases

Economic consequences of the Fehmarn Belt fixed link

Stagnated traffic development, lower EU-support, and other changed preconditions are challenging the profitability of the Fehmarn Belt tunnel. 

 

The Danish parliament has decided to construct an undersea tunnel in the Fehmarn Belt. A key prerequisite for this decision was that the entire Fehmarn-project is paid solely by the future users of the tunnel and therefore not by the Danish taxpayers. However, our analysis of the implications of traffic development, lower EU-support, and other changed preconditions of the project, makes us conclude that the economic case of the project can no longer be characterized as solid.   

 

Calculating the economic implications of the lower traffic and thus lower expected revenue from road tolls together with the lower financial support from the European Union, we find that the project can be expected to generate a loss of around 3 billion DKK (in 2014-prices). The Fehmarn-project will generate a loss of around 32 billion DKK (2014-prices) if the expected prices for cars and lorries are adjusted downward similarly to what was decided on the Oresund Bridge after its opening.

 

Scandlines

Make the Sustainable Development Goals to Our Goals

We have transformed the Sustainable Development Goals to Our Goals, so we can track Denmark’s trajectory towards a better future.

 

In 2015, the 17 Sustainable Development Goals were established to ultimately create a better world by 2030. To reach a less poor, more peaceful and sustainable world, concrete action is needed. The 2030-Panel, along with Statistics Denmark, have initiated the project Our Goals to determine the supplementary Danish indicators for the Global Goals to keep Denmark accountable. This is achieved by gathering input on how we measure progress, and ultimately how to reach our goals. Kraka Advisory have aided in this process, and 6.000 inputs have now become 197 Danish goals for a more sustainable society. Furthermore, we have developed relevant indicators and benchmarks for how far Denmark and Danish firms are currently, and thereby what we still need to finally reach our goals. Thus, Danish politicians and firms have the right premises to make informed decisions and take concrete action.

 

Danmarks Statistik og 2030-Panelet

Pejlemærker for en grønnere og mere fair transportsektor med mindre trængsel og spildtid på danske veje

An intelligent road pricing system can reduce the congestion and create substantial gains for the society.

 

Increasing road traffic is the cause of increasing problems with road congestion, noise, and climate change. The annual cost to society from road congestion is estimated to be about DKK 24 billion (approx. EUR 3.2 billion) and road transport is the cause of 28 per cent of Danish CO2 emissions. The Danish society can therefore potentially gain much by improving transport policy. The purpose of this report is to provide a proposal for future-proof transport policy, such that the external effects of transport, especially congestion and climate changes, are handled in the best possible way. We analyse a country-wide road pricing system, where a charge is levied for each kilometre of which cars, lorries, and vans drive on Danish roads. The system consists of three components:

  • a basic charge, which is independent of the time and place of which a vehicle drives on Danish roads
  • a time- and place dependent charge, which increases in steps depending on the level of congestion Our findings suggest that the road pricing system can reduce congestion by a half in the area surrounding Copenhagen and by 20 per cent in the rest of the country. Furthermore, traffic will be reduced, leading to a reduction of CO2 emissions by 5 per cent. We propose a road map for the introduction of road pricing in Denmark. The road map includes a stepwise introduction of road charging, where first lorries, then vans and finally cars are encompassed by the road pricing system. 

 

Transportgruppen 3F

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